← NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!
Fire SuitedTier 2
at NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.5% | 20 | 9-10-1 | 47.5% | 47.9% | 47.1% | -1.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.4% | -12.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.6% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 49.3% | -0.4 |
| Fire Exia | 5.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.2% | +0.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 16.7% | -21.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.6% | -7.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.0% | -15.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.4% | -7.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.8% | +14.2 |
| Water Fractal | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.1% | -18.1 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 67.1% | +27.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.9% | +8.5 |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.6% | +5.4 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Suited decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Duchess, Six of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Five of Spades | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rescue the Heir | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Two of Spades | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ashen Riffle | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suited Trickery | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verita, Queen of Hearts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Four of Spades | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Straight Flare | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |